https://aeacapitalresearch.com/ Letters and news from AEA Capital Research, a personal equity-research journal by Aydin Ali. en-us https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-08-01-situational-awareness-citadel-fire-sale.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-08-01-situational-awareness-citadel-fire-sale.html Situational Awareness LP was forced to sell roughly $16B of public holdings to Citadel after 4x leverage and a 67% July loss triggered margin calls. SanDisk and Nebius, two AEA positions, were named among the holdings sold. Sat, 01 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-31-same-day-opposite-verdicts.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-31-same-day-opposite-verdicts.html Amazon and Apple both beat earnings the same day and got opposite verdicts — the clearest evidence yet that the market is grading whether AI capex shows up as revenue or only as cost. Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-31-amazon-blowout-apple-guidance-selloff.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-31-amazon-blowout-apple-guidance-selloff.html Amazon rose 15.32% on AWS's fastest growth in 18 quarters while Apple fell 7.35% on soft guidance, on an earnings day that also moved Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Micron, SanDisk, and Coinbase by outsized amounts. Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-31-interim-note.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-31-interim-note.html Amazon and Apple were the day's two biggest movers, and I hold neither. Alphabet jumped 6.73% on its own earnings, Micron and SanDisk gave back ground to rising rates, Vertiv and Fortinet rallied. No trades. Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-28-cxmt-ipo-capex-skeptics-data-point.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-28-cxmt-ipo-capex-skeptics-data-point.html CXMT's $487 billion IPO gives the AI-capex-slowdown thesis a concrete, dated mechanism instead of a diffuse worry — a second, independent way the memory-cycle thesis could go wrong. Tue, 28 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-28-cxmt-ipo-memory-selloff-software-rally.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-28-cxmt-ipo-memory-selloff-software-rally.html SanDisk fell 14.25% and Micron fell 8.85% as CXMT's $487 billion IPO raised competitive fears in NAND memory, extending a neocloud selloff in Nebius and CoreWeave — while enterprise software rallied on real AI-demand contracts. Tue, 28 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-28-interim-note.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-28-interim-note.html A Chinese chipmaker's $487 billion IPO hit the memory/AI-infrastructure bucket hard — SanDisk, Micron, Nebius, NBIL, CoreWeave, Arm, and more all down — while ServiceNow and Netflix rallied. No trades. Tue, 28 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/weekly-digest.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/weekly-digest.html?week=2026-07-19 16 items published this week across Letters, News, Opinion, and Earnings — gathered in one digest. Sun, 26 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-24-when-a-beat-gets-sold.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-24-when-a-beat-gets-sold.html Intel beat estimates and fell, Micron got bullish news and fell, CoreWeave grew revenue 112% and fell hardest of all — the common thread isn't demand, it's who's paying for the AI buildout and how. Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-24-interim-note.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-24-interim-note.html Five positions moved sharply on two separate storylines Friday — neocloud capex skepticism hit CoreWeave and Nebius, memory-cycle doubt hit SanDisk, Micron, and Arm — while Intel fell despite its best quarter in 15 years. No trades. Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-24-neocloud-memory-selloff-intel-earnings-sold.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-24-neocloud-memory-selloff-intel-earnings-sold.html A quiet index day hid brutal dispersion: neocloud capex-versus-revenue concerns hit Nebius and CoreWeave, memory-cycle skepticism hit SanDisk, Micron, and Arm, and Intel fell despite its fastest revenue growth in 15 years. ServiceNow and American Airlines rallied. Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-23-two-shocks-one-session.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-23-two-shocks-one-session.html An oil-price shock and an AI-capex re-rating hit the tape the same day, for completely unrelated reasons — and the difference between the two is a useful way to sort risk generally. Thu, 23 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-23-interim-note.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-23-interim-note.html An oil-price shock and an AI-capex re-rating hit on the same Thursday, landing on two positions I hold for very different reasons — and one, Micron, actually benefited. Thu, 23 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-23-oil-shock-alphabet-capex-selloff.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-23-oil-shock-alphabet-capex-selloff.html A broad Thursday selloff with two separate causes: crude oil surged on renewed Iran blockade and Red Sea tanker-attack fears, hitting American Airlines hardest, while Alphabet's capex guidance raise dragged the Magnificent Seven complex lower despite a beat. Thu, 23 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-22-ai-hardware-software-divergence.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-22-ai-hardware-software-divergence.html Super Micro, Broadcom, and the power names rallied while ServiceNow, Datadog, and Palantir fell on the same day — the same AI-capex trade, pricing two different risks at once. Wed, 22 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-22-interim-note.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-22-interim-note.html A quiet index day hid a genuinely mixed one for the book — ServiceNow's worst day in months and a fourth SpaceX decline in two weeks, partly offset by gains in the power and AI-hardware names. Wed, 22 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-22-ai-debt-worries-servicenow-spacex-slide.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-22-ai-debt-worries-servicenow-spacex-slide.html A quiet index day (S&P 500 down 0.12%) hid sharp single-name moves: ServiceNow and enterprise-software peers fell on a Goldman Sachs AI-debt report, SpaceX fell further on share-lockup mechanics, and Super Micro Computer jumped 19.8% on margin guidance. Wed, 22 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-21-one-nvidia-disclosure-three-ai-stocks.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-21-one-nvidia-disclosure-three-ai-stocks.html Nvidia's stake in Nebius, a bullish SanDisk memory call, and Bloom Energy's power deal all trace back to the same company and the same structural argument. Tue, 21 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-21-interim-note.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-21-interim-note.html Nvidia's disclosed stake in Nebius and a bullish Morgan Stanley call on SanDisk both hit the same day for two of my own positions. Tue, 21 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-21-nvidia-nebius-stake-sandisk-bloom-energy.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-21-nvidia-nebius-stake-sandisk-bloom-energy.html A broad AI-chip rally led by Nvidia's disclosed 9.3% stake in Nebius, a bullish Morgan Stanley memory-pricing call on SanDisk, and Bloom Energy's power-for-AI-datacenters financing news. Tue, 21 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-20-interim-note.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-20-interim-note.html A quiet index day hid two sharp moves in my own Spec bucket — SpaceX on a scrubbed Starship test, Tempus AI on acquisition scrutiny — and why neither one is a trade. Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-20-flat-index-loud-day-dispersion.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-20-flat-index-loud-day-dispersion.html The S&P 500 moved 0.16% while SpaceX, Tempus AI, Applied Digital, and Oracle each swung 3-8% — what that dispersion says about where idiosyncratic risk is supposed to live in a portfolio. Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-20-spacex-starship-scrub-tempus-scrutiny.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-20-spacex-starship-scrub-tempus-scrutiny.html A quiet index day (S&P 500 down 0.16%) masked sharp single-name moves: SpaceX fell on a scrubbed Starship test, Tempus AI on acquisition scrutiny, and Oracle extended its AI-capex-driven slide. Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-19-interim-note.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-19-interim-note.html A follow-up to the July 17 note: real Q1 2026 SEC filing data on Alphabet and Meta's free cash flow coverage of their own AI capex, and what it does and doesn't change about holding both. Sun, 19 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-17-ai-capex-sustainability-question.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-17-ai-capex-sustainability-question.html Netflix's guidance miss, TSMC's capex raise, IBM's warning, and a Gemini delay report all landed the same day — read together, they're one question, not four unrelated stories. Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-17-interim-note.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-17-interim-note.html A broad Thursday selloff hit Netflix, SanDisk, and SpaceX on three unrelated theses, against a backdrop of rising worry about whether AI infrastructure spending still pays for itself. Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-17-netflix-guidance-broad-selloff.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-17-netflix-guidance-broad-selloff.html A broad Thursday selloff — S&P 500 down 0.99%, Nasdaq-100 down 1.50% — led by a Netflix guidance miss, an IBM warning, and rising concern over AI infrastructure capex. Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-10-build-vs-buy-ai-capex.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-10-build-vs-buy-ai-capex.html Meta building its own silicon and Micron building its own fabs are the same underlying bet on the AI supply chain, made from opposite ends of it — and a live test of the new trading-discipline rules. Fri, 10 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-10-interim-note.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-10-interim-note.html Micron's $250B manufacturing commitment and Meta's confirmed AI chip start date both moved the book green this week — on two theses that need to stay separate, not one. Fri, 10 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-10-meta-custom-ai-chip.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-10-meta-custom-ai-chip.html Meta says it will start manufacturing a customized AI chip in September, targeting 14 gigawatts of compute by 2027. META rose 4.7% on the day. Fri, 10 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-09-micron-250b-investment.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-09-micron-250b-investment.html Micron announced plans to invest more than $250 billion in U.S. memory manufacturing through 2035. MU rose 4.5%, SNDK popped 7.6% on the same day. Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/earnings.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/earnings.html The Earnings Analysis section is complete — every operating company in the book now has a full institutional-format report using its most recently reported quarter, from SNDK and META down to NFLX. Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/earnings/NBIS-2026-q1.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/earnings/NBIS-2026-q1.html New Earnings Analysis section launches with a full institutional-style report: beat-and-raise Q1 2026, capacity sold out, a $27B Meta capacity agreement, BUY rating with $250 price target. Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/earnings/MU-2026-q3.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/earnings/MU-2026-q3.html Record revenue and EPS, data center run-rate tops $100B, and what the memory supercycle means for the largest sleeve in the book. Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/watchlist.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/watchlist.html A new section tracking the research process before capital gets committed — why each name is interesting and what would actually move me to buy. Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-09-samsung-selloff-not-about-samsung.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-09-samsung-selloff-not-about-samsung.html Intel and AMD both fell hard after Samsung's earnings, but neither company's own numbers changed — what's actually being repriced ahead of two real catalysts. Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-is-ai-trade-crowded.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-07-is-ai-trade-crowded.html Using the site's own correlation data to argue the clustering risk is narrower and more concentrated than a sector-label view suggests. Wed, 08 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-08-interim-note.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-08-interim-note.html Alphabet joins the Dow, Meta's own stock whipsaws on its cloud pivot, and the same AI-infrastructure theme moves four holdings four different ways in one week. Wed, 08 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-08-meta-cloud-one-week-later.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-08-meta-cloud-one-week-later.html The same Meta-cloud story that hit NBIS and CRWV moved Meta's own stock 9% up, then half of that back down, in 48 hours. Wed, 08 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-08-googl-dow-jones.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-08-googl-dow-jones.html The fifth Magnificent Seven member enters the Dow — plus an underreported detail that Google is capacity-constrained on the same AI compute this book leans on heavily. Wed, 08 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-07-chip-selloff-samsung.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-07-chip-selloff-samsung.html Intel and Applied Materials fell roughly 10% and AMD around 8% on July 7, 2026 after Samsung's earnings triggered a broad semiconductor selloff. Tue, 07 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-06-semi-selloff-vs-record-dow.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-06-semi-selloff-vs-record-dow.html The Dow and Nasdaq closed at records on July 6, 2026, but AMD, Micron, and Intel fell for a second straight session on AI-semiconductor valuation concerns. Mon, 06 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-06-spcx-nasdaq-100.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-06-spcx-nasdaq-100.html SpaceX (SPCX) joins the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, 2026, under a new fast-track rule — touching both a speculative and an index-hedge position in the book. Mon, 06 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-interim-note.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-interim-note.html A short between-letters check-in on two real events touching the book: the semiconductor selloff against a record Dow, and SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 inclusion. Tue, 07 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-nbis-meta-cloud.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-nbis-meta-cloud.html Nebius Group (NBIS) dropped sharply after a Bloomberg report that Meta, one of its largest customers, is building a competing AI cloud business. Thu, 02 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-crwv-meta-selloff.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-07-crwv-meta-selloff.html CoreWeave (CRWV) sold off alongside Nebius after reports that Meta is building a competing AI cloud business — a live example of thematic clustering risk. Thu, 02 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-positioning.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-07-positioning.html July 2026 positioning letter: an honest map of all 32 holdings, real dollar figures, and the ongoing risks in the book. Thu, 02 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-06-26-power-before-chips.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-06-26-power-before-chips.html Real nuclear power-purchase agreements from Amazon and Meta sit behind two smaller positions — whether long-dated contracts make these calmer bets than semiconductors. Fri, 26 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-06-19-interim-note.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2026-06-19-interim-note.html Intel's Apple foundry deal confirmation moved a position bought years before the deal existed — a short note on what that does and doesn't prove. Fri, 19 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-06-19-intel-turnaround-real-time.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/opinion/2026-06-19-intel-turnaround-real-time.html Intel's Apple foundry deal confirmed the exact catalyst this position was bought for years before the deal existed — what that does and doesn't prove. Fri, 19 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-06-18-intel-apple-foundry-deal.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/news/2026-06-18-intel-apple-foundry-deal.html Intel closed up 10.6% on June 18, 2026 after President Trump confirmed Apple agreed to use Intel's foundry to build chips in America. Thu, 18 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2022-founding-note.html https://aeacapitalresearch.com/letters/2022-founding-note.html A retrospective account of how AEA Capital Research started — $500, a written Investment Policy Statement, and why it was written before the money instead of after. Tue, 07 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT