July 2026 · Interim Note
A Second Rough Day for AI Infrastructure, and an Earnings Beat the Market Sold Anyway
Friday's indices looked calm — the S&P 500 up 0.10% — but five of my positions moved sharply on two separate storylines, and it was the kind of day where the portfolio's concentration in the AI buildout showed up all at once.
The neocloud and memory names
CoreWeave fell 11.37% to $71.88 on concern over its capex plans against its revenue base — I bought this position at an average cost of $82.94, so it is now trading below what I paid, the first of my AI-infrastructure names to go net negative. Nebius fell alongside it, down 15.02% to $187.77, on the same underlying worry about neocloud spending versus profitability; my average cost there is $90.12, so it remains comfortably above cost even after today. SanDisk fell 10.79% to $1,436.56 as two analysts published price targets $1,430 apart ahead of its early-August report, and Micron fell 6.99% to $920.95 despite what the reporting described as bullish sector news that day — I can't find a specific negative catalyst for Micron; this one looks like sentiment, not new information. Arm fell 8.14% to $260.01 in the same complex. All four of the latter are still well above my cost basis. Full sourcing on the News page.
Intel added a different pattern: a genuine beat — 25% revenue growth, its fastest in 15 years — that the market sold anyway once it focused on the GAAP loss and the stock's stretched valuation. Intel fell 7.89% to $92.32; my average cost is $37.43, so this remains one of my largest unrealized gains regardless of today's move.
The bright spots were ServiceNow, up 7.44% to $98.78 on continued momentum from its Q2 beat and raised guidance, and American Airlines, up 6.79% to $14.48 as oil gave back part of Thursday's spike.
No trades today
The Blackout Rule and Holding Period exist for exactly this kind of session. Nothing about CoreWeave dropping below my cost basis changes the thesis I wrote it up on — it just moved the price, and a name I hold specifically because it sits inside a capital-intensive buildout was always going to reprice hard when the market's patience for that spending shortens. No trades made.