Market snapshot · September 29, 2026 close
S&P 500 (SPY) $764.20 −0.18% Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) $737.93 +0.19% Dow (DIA) $512.88 −0.22% Russell 2000 (IWM) $279.01 −0.36% 10-Year Treasury (IEF) $89.45 −0.09% Crude Oil (USO) $143.35 −4.44% Gold (GLD) $382.89 +1.32% US Dollar Index (UUP) $28.75 +0.17% Volatility (VXX) $17.45 −0.06% Semiconductors (SMH) $606.90 +1.15% Silver (SLV) $55.48 +0.96% Emerging Markets (EEM) $67.40 +0.30% Bitcoin (BTC) $83,638.42 +0.22% Ethereum (ETH) $2,676.70 −0.40% S&P 500 (SPY) $764.20 −0.18% Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) $737.93 +0.19% Dow (DIA) $512.88 −0.22% Russell 2000 (IWM) $279.01 −0.36% 10-Year Treasury (IEF) $89.45 −0.09% Crude Oil (USO) $143.35 −4.44% Gold (GLD) $382.89 +1.32% US Dollar Index (UUP) $28.75 +0.17% Volatility (VXX) $17.45 −0.06% Semiconductors (SMH) $606.90 +1.15% Silver (SLV) $55.48 +0.96% Emerging Markets (EEM) $67.40 +0.30% Bitcoin (BTC) $83,638.42 +0.22% Ethereum (ETH) $2,676.70 −0.40%

Risk

Thematic Exposure

Sector and bucket labels can hide a risk that cuts across both: several holdings can carry completely different sector tags and bucket assignments while still depending on the same underlying bet. This page is that single-theme lens, computed directly from the live Holdings weights.

Checked: September 29, 2026 close · First disclosed in the July letter's ongoing-risks section; this page makes it a standing, checkable figure instead of a one-time mention.

17Positions in the theme
59.88%Of the book
1Dominant theme

The theme: AI infrastructure, compute & power

Semiconductors and memory, enterprise software tied to AI capex, AI data-center and compute infrastructure, and the power generation that feeds it are, functionally, one bet: that AI-driven compute and power demand keeps growing. Sixteen of my 32 positions and one leveraged ETF touch this theme in some form. The IPS requires flagging single-theme clustering when it appears — it doesn't cap it, because a written cap here would be arbitrary rather than principled, but disclosure is the discipline in its place.

Every position in the theme

TickerSub-theme% of book
SNDKSemiconductors / memory tied to AI capex9.70%
METAHyperscaler AI capex spender9.60%
AMDSemiconductors / memory tied to AI capex8.52%
MUSemiconductors / memory tied to AI capex5.98%
PANWEnterprise software tied to AI capex5.45%
INTCSemiconductors / memory tied to AI capex4.55%
TLNAI data-center / power infrastructure2.65%
NBILAI data-center / compute (leveraged)2.25%
DDOGEnterprise software tied to AI capex2.26%
NOWEnterprise software tied to AI capex2.19%
AVGOSemiconductors / memory tied to AI capex1.33%
WYFIAI data-center / compute infrastructure0.73%
FTNTEnterprise software tied to AI capex1.48%
CRWVAI data-center / compute infrastructure1.21%
NBISAI data-center / compute infrastructure1.33%
CRWDEnterprise software tied to AI capex1.47%
VSTAI data-center / power infrastructure0.79%

Why this is disclosed, not capped

The IPS's diversification clause calls for flagging single-theme clustering "when it appears," deliberately short of a hard numeric cap. A hard cap on a theme this broadly defined would either be meaningless (set so high it never binds) or would force selling good businesses for a bad reason (correlation, not fundamentals). The honest response is transparency: this page, kept current, plus the standing risk this creates. The NBIS and CRWV selloffs in July 2026 were a live example of exactly this correlation showing up on a single bad week — multiple names in this table moved together on the same news, regardless of their individual fundamentals.

What would change this

Nothing here is a plan to trim the theme — it's a deliberate view that the underlying demand is real and durable. What would change my mind: a sustained deceleration in hyperscaler capex guidance across multiple names in the same earnings season, not a single stock's bad quarter. Until then, this table exists so the concentration is checkable, not just described in prose once and forgotten.