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September 18, 2026 SNDK, MU, AMD, COIN, SMH
Memory and Crypto Shares Rally as a 5% Treasury Yield Splits the MarketMost stocks fell as the 10-year Treasury yield returned to 5%, but memory chips and crypto-linked shares surged. The AEA book gained 1.09%, and Sandisk’s rally put the 10% position cap back in breach.
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September 17, 2026 SPY, QQQ, SMH, INTC, TEM
Stocks Rebound as Oil Falls; Chip Shares Extend Their Post-Fed GainsStocks rebounded Thursday morning as crude oil fell and Treasury pressure eased. Semiconductors led, Tempus AI surged without a confirmed company catalyst, and the portfolio rose 2.30% through 10:25 a.m. ET.
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September 16, 2026 INTC, MRVL, COIN, SPY, DIA
The Fed Hiked Rates for the First Time in Three Years. Intel Rallied 4% on a Different Story Entirely.The Federal Reserve raised its target rate 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike in three years, and the S&P 500 fell 0.44%. Intel rose 4.03% on reported SK Hynix manufacturing talks, Marvell rose 3.61% on the same report, and Coinbase fell 4.42% against a higher crypto tape.
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September 15, 2026 AMD, COIN, CRWD, TEM, CAKE
Treasury Yields Hit Their Highest Level Since 2007 Ahead of the Fed. Chip Stocks Rallied Anyway, and Coinbase Fell 10.10% on a Senate VoteThe 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.04%, its highest level since July 2007, as oil rose 3.32% on a reported Saudi pipeline disruption. AMD and CrowdStrike led a rebound in the names Monday's AI-slowdown headlines hit hardest, while Coinbase fell 10.10% ahead of a Senate crypto vote.
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September 15, 2026 SPY, QQQ, AMD, SNDK, USO
Oil and Yields Pressure Stocks as the Fed Meets; Chip Shares StabilizeThe broad market weakened Tuesday morning as energy prices and borrowing costs rose, while semiconductor shares stopped moving in one direction. Midday edition; data through 11:50 a.m. ET.
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September 14, 2026 NVDA, MU, VRT, PANW, CRWD
AI Stocks Fell on a Call to Slow Down. Oil and a 5% Ten-Year Yield Made the Same Trade More Expensive.The September 14 selloff paired a new question about the pace of AI deployment with a familiar valuation shock: oil rose, the 10-year yield briefly reached 5%, and the semiconductor complex sold off broadly. Cybersecurity was the useful counter-example.
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September 11, 2026 SMCI, VRT, ARM, SNDK, PANW
Oil Gave Back Half of Thursday's Spike and Volatility Fell 4.29%. Super Micro Extended Its Earnings Rally to 7.28% and Vertiv Announced a $1.45 Billion Deal.Crude oil fell 2.20% and volatility fell 4.29% Friday as Thursday's selloff mostly reversed. Super Micro rose 7.28% on its earnings momentum, and Vertiv rose 3.60% on a $1.45 billion acquisition with a guided 40% three-year EPS growth rate.
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September 10, 2026 MU, INTC, CRWV, VRT, AAPL
Wholesale Inflation Hit 5.4% and Oil Broke $106. Memory Chips and AI Infrastructure Names Fell Twice as Hard as the Index.A hot PPI print and crude above $106 a barrel pushed Fed rate-hike odds to 70% for September. The S&P 500 fell 0.60% while CoreWeave, Vertiv, Intel and Micron all fell more than 4.9%. Apple rose 3.56% on its new foldable iPhone.
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September 9, 2026 META, VRT, DDOG, WYFI, GOOGL
Meta Jumped 6.55% on a New AI Agent and an $18 Billion Settlement. Vertiv Fell 9.61% and No One Can Say Why.Meta rallied on the launch of its Muse AI agent and news of an $18 billion multi-state settlement, while Vertiv fell 9.61% on no identifiable news at all. Small-caps led index declines as oil, silver and gold all rose.
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September 4, 2026 SNDK, MU, NFLX, AAPL, PLTR
SanDisk Surged 11.90% and Micron 6.10% on One Analyst Note. A Stronger Jobs Report Barely Moved the IndexSanDisk and Micron rallied on a bullish Lynx Equity Strategies note citing AI-driven memory demand, while a stronger-than-expected August jobs report raised Fed rate-hike odds and pressured Netflix, Palantir and Coinbase. The S&P 500 closed down just 0.39%.
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September 2, 2026 PANW, DDOG, CRWD, NOW, FTNT
Palo Alto Beat Estimates and Raised Guidance. It Still Fell 9.28%, and Took Four Cybersecurity Peers With ItPalo Alto Networks beat Q4 revenue and EPS estimates and guided fiscal 2027 to 23-24% growth, but subscription revenue and adjusted gross profit missed consensus. Datadog, CrowdStrike, Fortinet and ServiceNow fell in sympathy with no dated news of their own.
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September 1, 2026 PANW, CRWD, SNDK, AAPL
Crude Jumped 5.46% on U.S.-Iran Tension, and Monday's Cybersecurity Rally Gave Back More Than It MadeOil rose 5.46% and Treasury yields climbed Tuesday on escalating U.S.-Iran tension, sending growth stocks lower across the board. Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike gave back all of Monday's guidance-driven rally and then some, while Apple rose on a CEO transition.
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August 31, 2026 MRVL, CRWD, SNDK, COIN
Marvell Kept Falling on Its Own Guidance While CrowdStrike Led a Cybersecurity Rally on a Raised OutlookMarvell fell another 2.29% Monday on the same margin guidance that hit it Friday. The same session, CrowdStrike rose 5.77% on a new product launch, lifting Fortinet and Palo Alto Networks with it, while Sandisk extended its NAND-pricing rally and Coinbase tracked a weekend crypto rebound.
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August 28, 2026 MRVL, NVDA, TEM, NOW
Marvell Falls 10.3% on Its Own Guidance, and the Selloff Spread to Everything ExpensiveMarvell beat Q2 estimates and still fell 10.28% on a soft margin guide. The same afternoon, Tempus AI, IonQ, WhiteFiber, Arm and Coinbase gave back recent gains while ServiceNow, Amazon and Alphabet rose — a rate-sensitive repricing of the market's highest multiples.
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August 27, 2026 TLT, GOOGL, CRWV, NBIS
Treasury Doubled Its Own Long-Bond Buybacks. The Long End Moved 1.7% in a Day.Days after ten- and thirty-year yields hit twenty-year highs, the Treasury said it would buy at least twice as much of its own long-dated paper per operation. TLT rose 1.67% on the announcement. This is the financing cost sitting underneath the AI-infrastructure debt this book is exposed to.
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August 27, 2026 AAL, USO, DAL, UAL
Oil Is Up 60% This Year. The Airline in This Book Is the Other Side of That Trade.A war closed the Strait of Hormuz in March and jet fuel never went back. Across 162 trading days in 2026 crude and American Airlines moved inversely with a correlation of -0.66 - a position bought on a demand thesis has behaved like a short oil trade.
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August 20, 2026 MU, SNDK, CRWD, PANW, MRVL
Semiconductors Rose While the Dow Fell 1.3% — and the Security Complex BrokeA 0.84% index decline covering a rotation rather than a selloff: memory and semis were bought while CrowdStrike fell 5.60% and the security-software group sold off without a company-specific catalyst.
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August 24, 2026 TEM, IONQ, SNDK, MU, META
The Dow Rose, Semis Fell 2.4%, and Everything Speculative Was SoldThe Dow closed higher while semiconductors fell 2.43% and the eleven least-established names in the tracked universe fell an average of 5.4%. Volatility was flat and gold rose — a sorting event by current earnings, not a risk-off scare.
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August 26, 2026 SNDK, MU, SMH
The Memory Trade Round-Tripped in Six Sessions. My Own Floor Broke.On August 17 I published a projection putting SanDisk’s “policy premium fully gone” level at $1,528. Six sessions later it closed 3.1% below it. What happened, why a give-back calculation is not a floor, and what changes in how I write these.
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August 25, 2026 SMCI, AMD, NBIS, MRVL, USO
Super Micro Rallies 9.4% on a Cisco Deal, AMD Gets a $1,250 Street Target, and Crude Oil Falls 4.6%Super Micro rose 9.35% after Cisco added its liquid-cooled servers to its Secure AI Factory line, AMD rose 4.91% as an analyst doubled its price target to $1,250, and crude oil fell 4.58% while Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike led an unexplained slide in security names.
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August 21, 2026 BTC, ETH, COIN, TEM, MRVL
Bitcoin Rallies 7.3% on Regulatory Optimism as Tempus AI Extends Its Rally and Marvell Falls With No Clear CatalystBitcoin rose 7.28% and Coinbase rose 8.20% on Clarity Act cloture-vote optimism, Tempus AI rose 9.06% as its Merck-Moderna-driven rally extended into a second week, and Marvell fell 5.57% with no dated headline explaining it.
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August 19, 2026 EL, NBIS, WYFI, NBIL, COIN, TEM
Estée Lauder Jumps on Earnings as Bitcoin Rallies and the AI-Infrastructure Debt Selloff Extends to a Second DayEstée Lauder rose 16.30% on a fiscal Q4 earnings beat and Bitcoin rose 7.14% on White House crypto-regulation optimism, while Nebius, WhiteFiber, and the leveraged NBIL fund extended Tuesday's debt-financing-cost selloff for a second day.
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August 18, 2026 CRWV, NBIS, TLN, MU, SNDK, INTC
AI-Infrastructure and Memory Stocks Sink as Rising Yields Repriced Debt-Financed GrowthCoreWeave fell 12.10% on debt-financing concerns as Treasury yields rose. Nebius, Applied Digital, Talen, Vertiv, and the memory/semiconductor complex fell alongside it, while gold and silver fell too — not a classic flight to safety.
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August 17, 2026 MU, SNDK
Micron’s Revenue Rose 346%. Its Cost of Goods Sold Rose 10%.An 84.6% gross margin from a memory manufacturer. The sequential detail says why: bit shipments rose low-to-mid single digits while average selling prices rose 60–87%. This is a pricing event, not a demand event — and it explains 13.3% of the book.
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August 17, 2026 SPY, SNDK, MU, NOW
SanDisk and Micron Rally on a Reshoring Signal as Rate-Sensitive Software SlidesU.S. equities closed lower Monday as the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007. SanDisk rose 8.88% and Micron rose 4.13% on a reported reshoring signal for memory chips, while ServiceNow, Datadog, and Meta led a software decline.
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August 17, 2026 MU, SNDK
Micron's Gross Margin Is Already 85%. SanDisk's 2030 Target Is 80%.Micron's latest 10-Q shows an 85% gross margin on a 10.5% rise in cost of goods sold, with DRAM selling prices up ~260% on ~20% more bits. The same signature as SanDisk, wider — and it makes 13.3% of the book one bet wearing two tickers.
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August 17, 2026 SNDK, MU
SanDisk Sold Mid-Teens Percent More Memory and Made $12.3 Billion More Gross ProfitSanDisk's operating margin swung 80 points to +61.3% in one year. Its own 10-K, filed Monday, shows volume rose mid-teens percent while revenue rose 175% — almost all of it price. Management's model asks for ~80% gross margins through fiscal 2030.
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August 17, 2026 INTC
Intel Made $4.8 Billion Designing Chips and Lost $2.1 Billion Making ThemIntel swung nearly $5 billion year over year to an operating profit. The segment table says data centre and a smaller restructuring charge did most of the work — Foundry still lost $2.09 billion, and roughly 95% of its revenue came from Intel itself.
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August 17, 2026 CRWV, NBIS, NBIL
CoreWeave’s Operating Loss Was $49 Million. Its Net Loss Was $626 Million.Between those two numbers sits $640 million of quarterly interest — the cost of the debt that bought the GPUs. Read with Nebius, the neocloud model’s $141.2 billion of contracted backlog is real, but long-dated, concentrated in two counterparties, and partly composed of management estimates.
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August 17, 2026 NBIS, NBIL, META, GOOGL
Nebius Gave Its Servers One More Year. The Accounting Change Was Worth $75.7 Million.Nebius extended the assumed useful life of its servers from four years to five, lifting first-half net income by $75.7 million and shrinking its reported second-quarter operating loss by roughly a fifth. Read against Meta, Amazon and Alphabet's own filings, four companies building the same AI infrastructure now depreciate it on four different schedules — and Amazon is moving the opposite way.
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August 14, 2026 NBIS, SNDK, AVGO, CRWD
Nebius Extends Its Post-Earnings Rally and Sandisk Jumps on an Investor Day, While Broadcom and a Software Cluster Fall With No Clear CatalystNebius rose 8.88% (its 2x leveraged ETF NBIL rose 17.77%) extending its post-earnings run, SanDisk rose 7.39% on investor-day targets, and Broadcom, CrowdStrike, and a cluster of software names fell with no dated catalyst found.
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August 13, 2026 SNDK, MU, NFLX, SPCX
SanDisk and Micron Rip Higher, Netflix Jumps on an Ackman Bet, as the Nasdaq-100 Gains 1.16%SanDisk rose 13.67% and Micron rose 4.23% on buy-the-dip memory-shortage coverage, Netflix jumped 5.43% after Pershing Square disclosed a stake, and Datadog logged another unexplained gain.
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August 11, 2026 NBIS, DDOG, SPCX, GOOGL
Nebius Jumps on an Asset-Light Pivot as Datadog's Unexplained Slide ContinuesNebius rose 4.95% on a real strategy shift to asset-light data-center financing, Datadog fell 5.37% for a third unexplained swing in four sessions, and AI-capex-concentration worries weighed on Alphabet and Oracle.
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August 10, 2026 DDOG, PANW, AAL, MRVL
Chips Sell, Software Rallies, and Datadog Claws Back Ground It Lost for No Clear ReasonA flat index day hid a sharp rotation out of chips and into software. Datadog rose 11.48%, partially reversing its still-unexplained August 6 decline, while American Airlines fell 5.9% as crude oil jumped 6.73%.
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August 7, 2026 SPCX, PLTR, RKLB, TEM
SpaceX, Palantir, and Rocket Lab Rally on Real Earnings as Broad Friday Gains ContinueSpaceX rose 15.83% on a cleared lockup and a $16.8B Tesla semiconductor JV, Palantir rose 10.32% on an Nvidia partnership, and Rocket Lab rose 9.46% on a new launch. Tempus AI rose 12.86% with no dated catalyst found.
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August 6, 2026 SPCX, NBIS, CRWV, DDOG, SYM
SpaceX Rebounds 6% on a $1 Trillion Revenue Pledge as Nebius and CoreWeave Extend Their SlideSpaceX rose 6.14% a day after a lockup-driven selloff as its first public earnings call pulled forward a $1 trillion revenue target. Nebius fell 13.29% and CoreWeave fell 5.07% on Meta competition. Datadog and Symbotic both fell double digits with no clear catalyst.
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August 5, 2026 SPCX, AMD, NVDA
SpaceX and AMD Fall Despite Record Quarters as Nvidia Wins Exclusivity and Lockup Looms; Gold Jumps 4%SpaceX fell 13.61% and AMD fell 7.04% on Wednesday despite record revenue, as Musk named Nvidia the exclusive AI-chip supplier for SpaceX and a lockup expiration loomed. Gold and silver both jumped 4.14%.
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August 4, 2026 PLTR, AMD, SPCX
Palantir Soars on Earnings, Semiconductors Rebound Broadly From July's SelloffU.S. equities rallied again on Tuesday, August 4, led by Palantir's post-earnings surge and a broad semiconductor rebound. The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) rose 3.40% and the semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 5.55%.
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August 3, 2026 MSFT, NBIS, CRWV
Microsoft's Earnings Beat Powers a Broad Rally — Nebius, CoreWeave, and Oracle All SurgeU.S. equities rallied broadly on Monday, August 3, as investors kept digesting Microsoft's fiscal Q4 earnings beat. The S&P 500 rose 1.42%, while Nebius, CoreWeave, and Oracle all posted outsized gains.
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August 1, 2026 SNDK, NBIS
Citadel Buys $16B in AI Stocks From Aschenbrenner's Fund After a Forced Fire SaleLeopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness LP was forced to sell roughly $16B of public holdings to Citadel after 4x leverage and a 67% July loss triggered margin calls. SanDisk and Nebius, two positions in this book, were named among the holdings sold.
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July 31, 2026 AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, META, MU, SNDK, COIN
Amazon Surges 15% on Blowout AWS Growth, Apple Falls 7% on GuidanceAmazon rose 15.32% on AWS's fastest growth in 18 quarters while Apple fell 7.35% on soft guidance, on an earnings day that also moved Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Micron, SanDisk, and Coinbase by outsized amounts.
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July 28, 2026 SNDK, MU, NBIS, CRWV, NOW, CRM
Memory Chips Crater as a Chinese Rival’s $487 Billion IPO Threatens NAND Pricing — Salesforce and ServiceNow RallySanDisk fell 14.25% and Micron fell 8.85% as CXMT's $487 billion IPO raised competitive fears in NAND memory, extending a neocloud selloff in Nebius and CoreWeave — while enterprise software rallied on real AI-demand contracts.
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July 24, 2026 NBIS, CRWV, SNDK, MU, INTC
Nebius and CoreWeave Fall Double Digits as the AI-Infrastructure Selloff Deepens — Intel's Earnings Beat Gets Sold TooA quiet index day hid brutal dispersion: neocloud capex-versus-revenue concerns hit Nebius and CoreWeave, memory-cycle skepticism hit SanDisk, Micron, and Arm, and Intel fell despite its fastest revenue growth in 15 years. ServiceNow and American Airlines rallied.
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July 23, 2026 AAL, GOOGL, AMZN, MU
Oil Tops $100 on Iran Blockade Fears as Alphabet's Capex Raise Reignites AI-Spending WorriesA broad Thursday selloff with two separate causes: crude oil surged on renewed Iran blockade and Red Sea tanker-attack fears, hitting American Airlines hardest, while Alphabet's capex guidance raise dragged the Magnificent Seven complex lower despite a beat.
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July 22, 2026 NOW, SPCX, SMCI
Enterprise Software Slides as AI-Debt Worries Resurface — SpaceX Falls Again, Super Micro Jumps 19.8%A quiet index day (S&P 500 down 0.12%) hid sharp single-name moves: ServiceNow and enterprise-software peers fell on a Goldman Sachs AI-debt report, SpaceX fell further on share-lockup mechanics, and Super Micro Computer jumped 19.8% on margin guidance.
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July 21, 2026 NBIS, SNDK, BE
Nvidia's Stake in Nebius, a Bullish SanDisk Call, and Bloom Energy's Power Deal Lift AI Infrastructure StocksA broad AI-chip rally Tuesday, led by Nvidia's disclosed 9.3% stake in Nebius, a bullish Morgan Stanley memory-pricing call on SanDisk, and Bloom Energy's power-for-AI-datacenters financing news.
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July 20, 2026 SPCX, TEM, ORCL, NBIS
SpaceX Slides on a Scrubbed Starship Test, Tempus Draws Scrutiny Over Its Personalis DealA quiet index day (S&P 500 down 0.16%) masked sharp single-name moves: SpaceX fell on a scrubbed Starship test, Tempus AI on acquisition scrutiny, and Oracle extended its AI-capex-driven slide.
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July 17, 2026 NFLX, SNDK, SPCX
Stocks Slide as Netflix Guidance Disappoints and TSMC's Capex Raise Stokes AI-Spending WorriesA broad Thursday selloff — S&P 500 down 0.99%, Nasdaq-100 down 1.50% — led by a Netflix guidance miss, an IBM warning, and rising concern over AI infrastructure capex.
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July 10, 2026 META
Meta Confirms Custom AI Chip Manufacturing Start DateA firm September start date and a 14-gigawatt 2027 target for Meta's own silicon — the vertical-integration story getting more concrete, not just more talked-about.
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July 9, 2026 MU, SNDK
Micron's $250B Bet on Memory: MU and SNDK Both Rallied on the Same HeadlineA $250 billion multi-year U.S. manufacturing commitment from Micron moved both memory names in the book on the same day — against a backdrop of live U.S.-Iran conflict headlines.
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July 8, 2026 GOOGL
Alphabet Joins the Dow Jones Industrial AverageThe fifth Magnificent Seven member enters the Dow — plus an underreported detail that Google is capacity-constrained on the same AI compute this book leans on heavily.
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July 8, 2026 META
Meta's Cloud Pivot, One Week Later: What the Stock Itself DidThe same Meta-cloud story that hit NBIS and CRWV moved Meta's own stock 9% up, then half of that back down, in 48 hours — closing the loop on a story covered from the other side.
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July 7, 2026 INTC, AMD
Chip Stocks Slide as Samsung Earnings Rattle the Sector — Intel and AMD Both HitA third distinct semiconductor drawdown this summer, hitting a different pairing this time — sentiment about AI-capex timing, not either company's own numbers.
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July 6, 2026 AMD, MU, INTC, SNDK
Dow Tops 53,000 for the First Time — While AMD, Micron, and Intel Fall for a Second DayA record day for the broad market and a rough one for 28.52% of the book — the semiconductor cluster the July letter already flagged, showing up in real time.
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July 6, 2026 SPCX, QQQ
SpaceX Joins the Nasdaq-100 Tomorrow — Three Weeks After Its IPOA fast-tracked index inclusion forces passive buying across the market — touching a speculative position and an index-hedge position in the same book for two different reasons.
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July 2, 2026 NBIS
Nebius Falls 21.9% in Two Sessions as Meta Eyes Its Own AI CloudNebius's largest customer may be about to become its competitor — and the leveraged double-exposure the July letter warned about just got tested.
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July 2, 2026 CRWV
CoreWeave Falls 17.9% Over Two Days on the Same Meta Cloud ConcernsA single headline moved two unrelated AI-infrastructure holdings at once — a live example of the thematic clustering risk already on the record.
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June 18, 2026 INTC
Intel Jumps 10.6% as Trump Confirms Apple Foundry DealThe clearest evidence yet that the foundry turnaround thesis this position was bought on years ago is landing real customers.