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AEACapital Research

Independent student research — not an investment firm or financial advice

Position · Emerging Growth

CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV)

1.17% of book · Avg. cost $82.94 · Return −13.47%

Compare vs. competitors: CoreWeave vs. Nebius vs. Applied Digital vs. Oracle Cloud →

Read the full Q1 2026 earnings report →

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Download full 3-statement model (.xlsx) →

Thesis StatementCoreWeave's early GPU-supplier relationships and $99.4B backlog make it a credible AI-infrastructure competitor to NBIS, at the cost of a widening GAAP loss during the capex ramp.

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc.
AEA Institutional Tear Sheet
1.17% of book · Avg. cost $82.94 · Return −13.47%

Core Thesis

CoreWeave offers Nvidia GPUs and other AI hardware optimized for demanding training and inference workloads, with early relationships with GPU suppliers keeping it ahead of the capacity curve as utilization scales — one of the purest ways to bet directly on...

Financial Metrics

  • Market Cap$47B
  • P/E (TTM)N/A — unprofitable
  • EPS (TTM)−$2.72
  • Div. Yield0.00%
  • Price$81.75

Bear Case

Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) build out enough of their own capacity that neutral GPU-cloud providers lose their edge, heavy debt-financed capex becomes a problem in a higher-rate or slower-growth environment, and unprofitability persists longer...

Investment Thesis

The Thesis
CoreWeave offers Nvidia GPUs and other AI hardware optimized for demanding training and inference workloads, with early relationships with GPU suppliers keeping it ahead of the capacity curve as utilization scales — one of the purest ways to bet directly on GPU-cloud demand without picking which model or application wins.
The Catalyst
Continued utilization scaling on existing GPU capacity and further training/inference workload wins from labs and enterprises that don't want to build their own data centers — CoreWeave rents out compute everyone needs regardless of who's ahead in the model race.
The Risk
If hyperscalers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon build out enough of their own capacity, neutral GPU-cloud providers lose their edge, and heavy debt-financed capex becomes a problem in a higher-rate or slower-growth environment while unprofitability persists.
The Connection
Core to my AI-infrastructure/compute theme alongside NBIS, WYFI, and NBIL — a direct, neutral bet on GPU-cloud demand itself.

Pre-Mortem Thesis Invalidation Parameters

Codified in advance, before any of these have happened, so a future decision to hold or exit isn't rationalized in the moment. If a condition below is met, the thesis as written is invalidated and the position gets re-underwritten from scratch — not automatically sold, but automatically questioned.

Metric / EventAutomatic Review Trigger
Capex Growth vs. Revenue GrowthCapex growth outpaces revenue growth for 2 consecutive quarters with no visible path to profitability.
Hyperscaler Self-Build DisclosuresA top customer publicly discloses bringing GPU capacity in-house at CoreWeave's expense.
Market cap$47B
P/E ratio (TTM)N/A — unprofitable
EPS (TTM)−$2.72
Dividend yield0.00%
Shares outstanding447.6M
SectorAI cloud infrastructure
EBITDAEarnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization — a measure of operating profitability before financing and accounting decisions. EV/EBITDA compares a company's full value (including debt) to this figure, often used to compare companies with different capital structures.EV/EBITDA 26.76x; adj. EBITDA margin 57% (Q4 FY25)
PEG ratioPrice/Earnings-to-Growth: the P/E ratio divided by expected earnings growth. Below 1.0 is often read as cheap relative to growth; above suggests the market is pricing in a lot of future growth already. Different providers use different growth-rate assumptions, so figures vary by source.N/A (not yet profitable)
Capex$31–35B (FY26 guidance)

Market cap, P/E, EPS, and dividend yield via Blossom. Shares outstanding via SEC filings. EBITDA, PEG ratio, and capex sourced from public filings and financial-data aggregators (GuruFocus, StockAnalysis, company earnings releases), cited on a per-figure basis. PEG ratio is sourced primarily from GuruFocus where available; different providers calculate PEG using different growth-rate assumptions (trailing vs. forward, 1-year vs. 5-year), so figures from other sources for the same stock can vary by several multiples — a known limitation of PEG as a metric, not unique to any name here.

Valuation Logic

With no meaningful trailing P/E given a widening net loss, the valuation case is a backlog-to-revenue exercise; investors are paying for contracted future demand, not current profitability.

DCF Sensitivity Tool

A simplified single-stage model for exploring how WACC and terminal growth assumptions move an implied share price — not AEA's own valuation of this stock. Adjust the base cash-flow figure to run your own numbers.

Implied Share Price —
Formula: Base FCF/Share × (1 + terminal growth) ÷ (WACC − terminal growth). A real DCF would forecast several years of cash flow explicitly rather than capitalize a single base year in perpetuity — this tool is a simplified illustration of how sensitive that kind of valuation is to two assumptions, not a price target.

In the news: CoreWeave Falls 17.9% Over Two Days on the Same Meta Cloud Concerns (July 2, 2026).

$63.80 (52-wk low)$81.75$166.22 (52-wk high)

About the business

CoreWeave offers Nvidia GPUs and other AI hardware, optimized for the most demanding AI training and inference workloads. Its cloud platform supports development of foundational large language models and delivery of AI applications for a fast-growing set of customers.

Why I own it

CoreWeave is one of the purest ways to bet directly on GPU-cloud demand without picking which model or application wins — it rents out the compute everyone needs regardless of who's ahead in the model race. It's modestly positive for me now, which is honestly the least eventful part of the AI-infrastructure cluster in my book so far.

Risk/Reward Profile

Bull CaseBear Case
GPU cloud demand keeps outstripping the hyperscalers' own capacity, CoreWeave's early relationships with GPU suppliers keep it ahead of the capacity curve, and it reaches sustained profitability as utilization scales.Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) build out enough of their own capacity that neutral GPU-cloud providers lose their edge, heavy debt-financed capex becomes a problem in a higher-rate or slower-growth environment, and unprofitability persists longer than the market is pricing in.

Base case: CoreWeave keeps growing revenue as a specialized GPU cloud provider, but stays capital-intensive and unprofitable for a while as it builds out more data-center capacity, with the stock trading on the broader AI-infrastructure narrative.

Download this position's data

Fundamentals, scenario matrix, and risk/reward table — exported exactly as published on this page, no reformatting.

Macro Stress-Test: How CRWV Fits In

The book-level stress test runs four scenarios against the whole portfolio. Here is exactly where CRWV sits in each one — named directly, or not addressed at all. Nothing below is invented for this page; it’s the same book-level analysis, filtered to this position.

Current positioning, no shock assumed

CRWV is 1.14% of the book, in the AI / Cloud Infrastructure sector. See the full base-case positioning on Holdings.

Where this position sits in the book’s least-defended scenario

Not individually named in the book-level inflation analysis. CRWV contributes to the book’s overall growth-multiple exposure only through its AI / Cloud Infrastructure sector weight — see the full scenario on Holdings for what is and isn’t defended.

Not individually assessed

Where this position sits in the book’s best-defended scenario

CRWV is a liquid, publicly traded security like every other position in the book — no private equity, no illiquid credit, no lockups. A genuinely broad market drawdown would still hurt (the book’s beta is 1.79), but this position doesn’t face the structural exit friction an illiquid holding would.

Liquid, publicly traded

Where this position sits in the book’s largest concentrated risk

Not part of the semiconductor sleeve this scenario is built around. CRWV sits in AI / Cloud Infrastructure, so a Taiwan-centered supply disruption would hit this position only indirectly, if at all, through broader market effects.

Outside the named semiconductor exposure